Climate change is reshaping the global tourism industry, threatening coastal resorts, damaging natural attractions, increasing operating costs and changing where and when people travel. As extreme heat, rising seas, wildfires and ecosystem degradation intensify, destinations face growing pressure to adapt or risk losing visitors, revenue and livelihoods.

Tourism has long depended on a relatively predictable relationship between people, places and seasons. Travellers book summer holidays along Mediterranean coastlines, visit tropical islands for their beaches, travel to mountain regions for skiing and explore wildlife reserves for encounters with nature. Yet the environmental conditions that make these destinations attractive are changing. Temperatures are rising, glaciers are retreating, coral reefs are bleaching, and extreme weather is placing tourism infrastructure and local economies under increasing strain.

The implications extend beyond hotels and airlines. Tourism supports employment, small businesses, transport networks, cultural industries and public revenue in countries across the world. When a destination becomes less attractive, more dangerous or more expensive to maintain, the consequences can spread through entire communities.

The future of global tourism will therefore depend not only on travellers' preferences and disposable incomes but also on how destinations respond to a changing climate. Some places may lose visitors, others may experience new demand, and many will have to redesign their tourism economies to remain viable.

How Climate Change Is Increasing Destination Risk

Tourism destinations are particularly vulnerable because their appeal often depends on specific environmental conditions. Beaches require accessible coastlines, ski resorts depend on reliable snowfall, wildlife tourism relies on functioning ecosystems, and outdoor attractions need weather conditions that allow visitors to explore safely. Climate change threatens these foundations through gradual environmental shifts and sudden extreme events.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies rising temperatures, sea-level rise, changes in precipitation and extreme weather as significant risks to natural and human systems. For tourism, these pressures can damage attractions, interrupt transport, threaten accommodation and reduce the quality of visitors' experiences.

Coastal destinations face rising physical and financial risks

Coastal tourism is among the most exposed parts of the global travel economy. Resorts, hotels, restaurants, ports and recreational facilities are frequently concentrated along shorelines, where they are vulnerable to erosion, coastal flooding, storm surges and rising sea levels.

The Maldives, an Indian Ocean archipelago known for its low-lying islands and luxury beach resorts, illustrates the challenge. Its tourism appeal is closely connected to healthy marine ecosystems, clear waters and beaches. Sea-level rise and coastal erosion threaten these natural assets, while warmer ocean temperatures place additional pressure on coral reefs.

Coral reefs are not merely underwater attractions. They support marine biodiversity, provide opportunities for diving and snorkelling, and help reduce wave energy along some coastlines. When coral bleaching and degradation diminish reef health, destinations can lose part of the ecological value that attracts visitors.

Caribbean island economies face related pressures. Hotels and other tourism infrastructure can sustain substantial damage during hurricanes and storm surges, while the cost of rebuilding may increase the financial burden on businesses and governments. Even when a destination recovers physically, damaged infrastructure, disrupted flights and negative publicity can affect bookings long after the immediate emergency.

The IPCC's assessment of oceans and coastal ecosystems highlights the threats that sea-level rise and increased wave energy pose to coastal infrastructure and beaches. These risks make coastal protection, appropriate construction setbacks and ecosystem restoration increasingly important to tourism planning.

Extreme heat could change when and where people travel

For decades, summer has been the peak travel season for many European destinations. Yet hotter summers may weaken the appeal of certain locations during the very months when tourism businesses expect their highest revenues.

Extreme heat affects visitors' comfort, health and willingness to participate in outdoor activities. Sightseeing, hiking, wildlife watching and visits to historic sites can become physically demanding when temperatures rise, especially for older travellers, young children and people with underlying vulnerabilities.

In Mediterranean destinations, including parts of Spain, Greece and Italy, prolonged heat and drought can also increase wildfire risk and place additional pressure on water supplies. A destination may remain open to visitors but still become more expensive to operate as businesses invest in cooling, water conservation, emergency preparedness and insurance.

These conditions could encourage tourists to shift their holidays towards spring and autumn, when temperatures are more comfortable. Some may choose cooler northern European destinations, higher-altitude locations or countries offering a broader range of indoor attractions.

However, such changes will not occur uniformly. Travellers have different budgets, preferences and scheduling constraints, while school holidays and employment commitments limit the flexibility of many households. Climate change is therefore more likely to redistribute demand across destinations and seasons than to eliminate summer tourism altogether.

For tourism operators, the commercial implication is clear: relying heavily on a short peak season can become increasingly risky. Businesses may need to extend operating periods, diversify activities and develop products that remain attractive under a wider range of weather conditions.

Mountain tourism is confronting the loss of snow and ice

Mountain destinations face a different set of climate pressures. Ski resorts depend on sufficiently cold conditions and reliable snow cover, while glacier tourism and mountaineering rely on landscapes and routes shaped by snow and ice.

As temperatures rise, lower-elevation ski areas may experience shorter seasons, more frequent periods without adequate snow and greater uncertainty about when operations can begin or end. Resorts may respond by investing in artificial snowmaking, changing their operating calendars or expanding summer activities such as hiking and mountain biking.

Yet these measures have limitations. Artificial snowmaking requires suitable temperatures, water, energy and capital. It cannot reliably compensate for warming under every condition, particularly where temperatures remain too high for snow production.

The IPCC's North America assessment documents how warmer winters have affected ski-season length and operating profitability in parts of the United States and Canada. Its broader findings show that snow-dependent tourism faces increasing risks as warming intensifies.

Glacier retreat also changes the experience of visitors who travel to see ice-covered landscapes. In mountain regions of Europe, Asia, Africa and South America, declining snow and ice can affect scenery, mountaineering conditions, cultural values and the livelihoods of communities that depend on mountain tourism.

The economic challenge is especially difficult for destinations with substantial investments in ski lifts, hotels, equipment rental and other specialised infrastructure. Such assets may have long payback periods, creating the possibility that facilities will become less profitable before their investment costs are recovered.

Diversification can reduce this exposure, but it requires more than advertising summer activities. Businesses may need new infrastructure, staff training, marketing strategies and partnerships with local communities to develop viable alternatives.

The Economic Shifts: Who Pays for Climate Change?

Climate-related tourism losses extend beyond fewer bookings. They affect employment, investment, government revenue, insurance markets, local supply chains and the financial stability of communities.

The United Nations has highlighted tourism's importance to developing economies, including small island states where it can account for more than one-fifth of gross domestic product. In economies with limited alternative sources of income, a prolonged decline in tourism can have consequences far beyond the hospitality industry.

Rising operating costs and insurance pressures

Tourism businesses must manage expenses associated with energy, water, repairs, insurance and climate adaptation. Hotels facing extreme heat may need more cooling capacity, while resorts in water-stressed regions may require storage facilities, efficient plumbing, wastewater recycling or desalination.

Properties exposed to flooding and storms may also need stronger buildings, drainage improvements, protective infrastructure and emergency systems. These investments can be expensive, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises that operate on narrow profit margins.

Insurance adds another dimension. As climate-related hazards increase in particular locations, insurers may reassess exposure, adjust premiums, impose exclusions or reduce coverage availability. The scale of these changes varies by market and property, but where insurance becomes expensive or difficult to obtain, financing new tourism developments can become more challenging.

Some costs may be passed on to visitors through higher room rates, activity fees and other charges. Others may be absorbed by businesses, reducing profitability and limiting their capacity to invest in improvements.

This creates a competitive divide. Large hotel groups and well-capitalised destinations may have greater access to finance and technical expertise, while smaller operators struggle to keep pace.

Employment and local livelihoods are at stake

Tourism supports more than hotel employees and airline workers. Its economic network includes farmers supplying restaurants, fishers providing seafood, transport operators, craft makers, tour guides, market traders and informal businesses that depend on visitor spending.

When a destination experiences repeated disruptions or declining demand, these workers can lose income even if they do not work directly for a tourism company. Seasonal and informal workers may be particularly vulnerable because they often lack savings, employment protection or access to social insurance.

The distribution of climate-related costs also raises questions of fairness. Communities that contribute relatively little to global greenhouse gas emissions may face substantial losses when their economies depend on climate-sensitive tourism.

For example, a small island community may depend on beach tourism while having limited resources to finance coastal protection, rebuild damaged infrastructure or develop alternative industries. A decline in visitor spending can reduce local income at the same time that public authorities face higher reconstruction and adaptation costs.

Protecting tourism therefore requires attention to the people behind the visitor economy. Financial support for small enterprises, skills development, local procurement and economic diversification can help communities withstand disruptions without placing the entire burden on individual workers.

Tourism investment decisions will become more climate-sensitive

Investors have traditionally assessed tourism projects using factors such as location, visitor numbers, accessibility, operating expenses and expected returns. Climate risk adds another essential dimension.

A beachfront hotel may appear commercially attractive today but face higher long-term costs from erosion, flooding, heat or water shortages. A ski resort may have strong current demand but uncertain prospects if snow conditions deteriorate. Wildlife destinations may depend on ecosystems that are increasingly exposed to drought, changing rainfall or habitat degradation.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and UN Tourism have highlighted the need to align tourism investment with sustainability, inclusive development and long-term resilience.

For investors, this means assessing not only whether a destination can attract visitors but also whether it can continue to provide a safe, reliable and environmentally viable experience over the life of an investment.

Climate risk assessments, updated building standards, water-security planning and transparent environmental reporting can help investors identify weaknesses before committing capital. Projects that ignore these factors may face stranded assets, reduced returns or expensive retrofits.

Will Some Destinations Benefit from Climate Change?

Climate change will not affect all tourism destinations in the same way. Some places may experience declining demand, while others could benefit from shifts in travel preferences.

Cooler regions may attract more visitors during periods when traditionally popular summer destinations experience extreme heat. Some northern European locations, for example, could become more attractive to travellers seeking moderate temperatures and outdoor recreation.

Destinations that previously had short seasonal windows may also find opportunities to expand certain activities into longer periods of the year. However, the extent of these benefits will depend on local infrastructure, environmental conditions, accessibility and the nature of the tourism products offered.

Potential gains must be considered alongside new risks. Cooler regions may experience more intense rainfall, flooding, wildfires or ecosystem disruption. Increased visitor numbers can also place pressure on housing, transport, water resources and sensitive natural areas.

A destination gaining popularity because another location has become less comfortable does not automatically become climate-resilient. Without careful planning, additional tourism demand can create new environmental and social problems.

There is also a danger in interpreting climate change as a commercial opportunity without considering the people and ecosystems affected. A shift in tourist spending may benefit some businesses while leaving workers and communities in declining destinations with fewer alternatives.

The more useful question is not simply which places will gain or lose visitors. It is which destinations can manage environmental change while maintaining reliable livelihoods, healthy ecosystems and inclusive economic benefits.

What Must Governments and the Tourism Industry Do?

The future of tourism depends partly on the industry's ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and partly on its capacity to adapt to climate impacts that are already occurring or expected to continue.

The UN Tourism framework for sustainable development identifies environmental protection, biodiversity conservation, resource efficiency and climate action as important foundations of resilient tourism.

Several measures are particularly important.

1. Integrate climate risk into destination planning

Governments and tourism authorities should identify areas exposed to flooding, erosion, heat stress, water shortages, wildfires and other relevant hazards. These assessments should inform zoning decisions, building standards, infrastructure investment and emergency planning.

New hotels and resorts should not be approved solely because a location is commercially attractive. Their proposed sites, expected lifespan and exposure to climate hazards must also be considered.

In vulnerable areas, restricting development, relocating essential infrastructure or restoring natural protective systems may be more sustainable than repeatedly rebuilding damaged facilities.

2. Protect the ecosystems that attract visitors

Healthy ecosystems are part of tourism's economic infrastructure. Coral reefs, wetlands, forests, beaches and mountain landscapes support biodiversity while contributing to the visitor experience.

Protecting these environments can strengthen the resilience of destinations. Coastal wetlands and mangroves, where suitable, can help reduce wave energy and provide important habitats. Reef protection can support marine biodiversity, while responsible forest management can preserve wildlife tourism and reduce pressure on fragile landscapes.

However, conservation must be designed around local ecological conditions. Restoration projects cannot replace the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and poorly planned tourism can damage the very ecosystems that conservation efforts seek to protect.

3. Diversify tourism products and local economies

Destinations that rely on a single attraction or narrow travel season face concentrated risks. Governments and businesses can reduce this dependence by developing cultural tourism, heritage experiences, locally led ecotourism, indoor attractions and activities suited to different seasons.

Economic diversification should extend beyond tourism itself. Communities may benefit from stronger agriculture, fisheries, creative industries, local manufacturing and other sources of income that reduce their dependence on visitor spending.

Such diversification is particularly important for small island states and remote communities where a single climate-related disruption can affect a large share of local employment.

4. Reduce emissions across the tourism value chain

Tourism also contributes to the problem it must adapt to. Transport, accommodation, food supply, construction and visitor activities all generate greenhouse gas emissions.

Air travel can be a particularly important source of emissions for long-distance international tourism. Hotels and resorts also consume energy, while food procurement, waste management and construction contribute to their environmental footprint.

Businesses can reduce emissions through energy efficiency, renewable electricity, lower-carbon transport options where practical, food-waste reduction and more sustainable purchasing. Governments can support these efforts through appropriate infrastructure, standards and incentives.

Climate action must involve measurable reductions rather than relying on vague sustainability claims or treating carbon offsets as a substitute for cutting emissions.

5. Build stronger systems for climate information and disaster preparedness

Tourism operators need access to reliable weather forecasts, climate projections and early-warning systems. Emergency plans should cover evacuation, visitor communication, staff safety, transport disruption and business continuity.

Destinations should also assess how climate hazards may affect water, electricity, communications and access roads. A hotel may survive a storm structurally but remain unable to operate if its surrounding infrastructure fails.

Public authorities, businesses and local communities must coordinate their responses. Climate resilience cannot be delivered by individual hotels alone when the wider destination depends on shared infrastructure and public services.

Africa and the Future of Climate-Resilient Tourism

Africa's tourism sector illustrates why climate change must be considered both an environmental threat and a development challenge.

Wildlife safaris, coastal holidays, mountain tourism and cultural heritage attract visitors across the continent. These activities support jobs, conservation programmes, transport services and local enterprises. Yet many destinations depend on rainfall patterns, biodiversity, water availability and natural landscapes that can be affected by a changing climate.

In East Africa, wildlife tourism can be affected by drought, changes in water availability and shifts in ecosystem conditions. The consequences may extend to wildlife populations, livestock, pastoral livelihoods and the visitor experience. Mountain destinations, including those associated with Kilimanjaro, also face changes to snow and ice that influence the landscape and mountaineering conditions.

Coastal destinations in countries such as Tanzania, Kenya and Mozambique face risks associated with sea-level rise, coastal erosion, marine ecosystem degradation and extreme weather. These pressures may affect accommodation, transport infrastructure, beaches and activities such as diving and snorkelling.

Climate vulnerability is not uniform across the continent. Different countries and destinations have different exposures, financial resources, infrastructure and adaptation needs. It would therefore be misleading to assume that every African tourism economy will experience the same effects.

For Nigeria, the discussion is relevant to coastal tourism, wetlands, forests, cultural heritage and nature-based attractions. Coastal erosion, flooding, heat and ecosystem degradation can affect the quality and accessibility of natural sites, while inadequate waste management and poorly planned development can compound existing environmental pressures.

Destinations and tourism operators that integrate environmental management into their business strategies can help protect the natural assets on which future visitor demand may depend. Community participation is essential, particularly where local people are responsible for maintaining cultural landscapes, guiding visitors or managing natural resources.

Africa's opportunity lies not only in attracting more tourists but also in developing tourism models that generate local value, protect ecosystems and remain viable under changing climatic conditions.

The Future of Tourism Will Depend on Decisions Made Today

Climate change is unlikely to produce a single, uniform future for global tourism. Its effects will differ according to geography, economic conditions, infrastructure, visitor preferences and the effectiveness of adaptation measures.

Some destinations will face declining appeal or rising operating costs. Others may gain visitors as travel seasons shift. Many will experience both opportunities and risks, with the balance depending on how effectively governments, investors, businesses and communities respond.

The greatest danger is treating climate change as a distant environmental issue while continuing to make tourism investments based on historical weather patterns. Infrastructure built today may remain in use for decades. Decisions about coastal development, water supply, energy systems and natural resource management can therefore shape the financial performance of destinations long into the future.

The industry must also recognise that resilience is more than protecting hotels from storms. It involves safeguarding workers' livelihoods, maintaining ecosystem health, reducing emissions, strengthening public infrastructure and ensuring that local communities share in the benefits of tourism.

For governments, the priority is to incorporate climate risk into development planning and public investment. For businesses, it is to understand their exposure, reduce environmental impacts and develop credible adaptation strategies. For travellers, it is to make informed choices that respect local communities and natural environments.

The central lesson is that the future of tourism will be shaped not only by where people want to go, but also by which destinations can remain safe, accessible, environmentally healthy and economically viable.

Climate change is already challenging the assumptions on which much of the global tourism industry was built. The destinations that respond early, invest wisely and protect their natural and cultural assets will be better placed to navigate the transition. Those that delay may discover that rebuilding after repeated losses is far more expensive than preparing for change.